For more than 20 years, Democrats can count on New York, a bastion of liberal support in their war with Republicans.
The state has not elected a Republican senator or governor in 20 years.
But their dominance is under threat as next week’s U.S. midterm elections loom.
As a sign of their troubles, Democrats are drafting big this weekend
In the final days of these elections, the vice president, the president and the two Clintons are all party stars running here.
The poll numbers are not in their favor.
Their gubernatorial candidate, Kathy Hochul, could be in trouble.
She is neck-and-neck with her Republican challenger, Lizeldin.
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But their problems go deeper.
New York is a bellwether state.
If the Republican-backed red wave happens here, it is likely to repeat itself across the country.
In the suburban north, people are hungry for change.
The prosperous, sleepy town of Nyack on the Hudson is not a Republican stronghold, but people have not been content with the Democratic administrations of the past two years.
“I haven’t really seen the left really do anything,” waiter Maddux Cale told Sky News.
“I haven’t seen them say to come forward and I haven’t seen them do anything that’s really effective in helping people.”
“Look at inflation, look at fuel prices,” said Mike Rail, sitting outside a bar on Main St.
“I mean, it’s out of control, so what if we don’t try something else for two years? Just two years.”
Post-pandemic issues could punish Democrats.
Inflation, the cost of living and rising crime are motivating voters.
On the subway to the city centre, New Yorkers told Sky News they were very concerned for their safety.
“Crime is definitely a problem – on trains and in the suburbs,” said one commuter, who declined to be named.
“I’ve been in New York for more than 40 years, and this is the first time I’ve been afraid to come to Manhattan,” said one female passenger.
“But not just Manhattan.
“I live on Long Island and it used to be safe and now it’s not.
“I’m just scared.”
She said she would still vote Democrat because she doesn’t believe Republicans can do better.
But enough voters are considering supporting Republicans to shock Democrats.
You’d expect a determinedly free crowd on a drag bingo night.
But among the players at the Wolf and Warrior Brewery in White Plains, New York, a former Democrat told Sky News that he would vote for a Republican.
“I actually voted for Bill Clinton, so I like Bill Clinton.
“I think he’s good for the economy and the market, and then, over the last couple of years, when you look at what’s going on with everything now, I think you’ve got to go in a different direction.”
There could be a political shift in New York that could cause trouble across the country.
If Republicans can do well here, they’ll do well across America, too, for Joe Biden’s administration and party.